Patrick's Rants


VG – Out

Filed under: Money,Stocks — site admin @ 6:50 am

I closed my 300 shares of VG yesterday at $2.49. Looking at the recent chart that’s where the resistance was coming in and looked to be the most likely price to sell. It did not perform anything like what I originally expected, but I did manage to close it for just over an 8% gain. It took nearly a year to do it too. This is the reason to look carefully at any stock for purchase. If I had not been willing to continue holding VG, I would most likely have lost money. The screeners that I run are supposed to find stocks that have positive value, actually have sales and aren’t losing money as a company. Although the screeners are not perfect, as my trades in ABAT show, they are designed to find companies that are “ok” to hold onto for a long time – if I have to.

Bottom line on VG – and trading – is set yourself some rules. You can use rules that others have come up with if they make sense to you. But set some rules. How much are you willing to invest in each stock? How much are you willing to lose on each stock? When do you cut your loses?

This is what I’m doing in my own account, I sometimes make changes that I don’t write about here – lowering my sale price on VG, for instance. You must do your own research and due diligence. The examples here are for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. Isn’t it fun watching me lose from time to time?


VG On a Slow Boat

Filed under: Money,Stocks — site admin @ 7:27 am

VG did not make the quick move that I thought it would so I’m waiting. The waiting is really the hardest part. This is the part where I practice patience. There is the gap on the chart that I’m looking to see filled, but long term the trend is actually slightly down. How low can it go? Theoretically zero. It’s trading at a 1.9 P/E. That is extremely low, but there doesn’t seem to be a ton of confidence in the price – at least right now.

Just watch and wait – and wait.

Correction: the P/E for VG is 1.23 according the TDAmeritrade this morning. I think it was around 1.9 when I purchased it.

Disclaimer: I own some shares of VG, this is what I’m doing in my own account. What you do in your account has nothing to do with me, I’m not recommending that you buy VG or any other stock on this site.



Filed under: Money,Stocks — site admin @ 8:09 am

I bought 300 shares of Vonage at $2.24, looking for a one day pop to $2.50 if I’m lucky. If not, the higher payout is around $2.59. I’m leaning toward setting my sale price below $2.59, it’s not the high, but it’s been a consistent price point. Tech analysis of the chart shows a gap from 2.73 to 2.50. If you believe that “gaps are filled” then buying around this 2.24 and setting the sell order at 2.72 or so would result in $ for just over a 20% gain.

The concept that gaps are filled doesn’t predict when, just that they are, eventually, “filled”. In the meantime, I’m looking for just over 10% and the chance to roll it a few times before the gap does get filled.

Disclaimer: This is what I’m doing with my money. Do your own due diligence, I’m not recommending any investment, yada yada.



Filed under: Money,Stocks — site admin @ 7:39 am

I’m primarily just waiting for things to happen with my stocks. No major moves, no exciting pops. I did decide to add a little (7% annual) dividend income to my account and bought 2 shares of JNK for the few cents worth of dividends per month (JNK qualifies for commission free trades in my account so 2 shares or 2000 shares makes no difference in trading costs). I’m also hanging on to my shares of VG, YHOO, ANH, and CMRG that I’m holding. I’m selling covered calls on YHOO so I have to wait for the price to come down on the options, the shares to close under $15 at expiration or to be called out. With YHOO, I’m inclined to be called out and then start selling the puts and use the unused cash for my other stocks.

VG has really been slammed, but no real negative stories on it, still has positive numbers and really low P/E. It hasn’t done what I want so I might have to rethink whether to buy it again if and when my sale price gets hit. In the meantime, I’m just holding and waiting. I might also review the calls when the price gets back above $2.40 if I don’t happen to just close the trade.

My current holdings of ANH are too low to trade. I only have 25 shares and commissions would eat any profit so I’m just taking in the quarterly dividends currently around 12% annually. The 25 shares was done on purpose, I bought 225 shares on the last turn and got called out of the covered calls I was selling on 200 shares.

This is what I’m doing in my own account and is for illustrative and educational purposes only. Do your own research.


2005 Fall television lineup

Filed under: TV — site admin @ 9:27 am

As I check over the new shows destined to become my favorites I have some interesting – to me anyway – observations of the line ups.
Despite what I started to see as a trend at the beginning of the year, I am pleased to say that the only upcoming show of any kind of “religious bend” is a reality show called Three Wishes and only because singer Amy Grant is part of the show. I was afraid that Dubya’s so-called mandate and the manufactured “uproar”1,2 over nipple displays would cause the television industry to change what they broadcast. (Interestingly enough if you search for for FCC Indecency complaint in the first three results you get a form from the so-called Parent’s Television Council. Instead of using the V-Chip, which gives parents the ability to lock out certain ratings during times of the day when parents are not home, they use email to the FCC to try to mold what the rest of us can watch.)
In the new line up of approximately 31 shows there are far more of the Maxi-series (mini-series expanded to fill the whole season but has a very limited expected life span) than ever. Commander-In-Chief, Fathom, Invasion, The Night Stalker, Prison Break, Reunion, Supernatural, and Threshold are destined to be replaced because you can’t make these kinds of shows last more than that long – look at television versions of The Fugitive and The Net for a couple of examples. These shows all have a natural conclusion and if not people will become tired of the show and it will die anyway.
There are pleasantly a large number of “supernatural” shows from the Ghost Whisperer to the alien invader shows, Fathom, Invasion and Threshold in the lineup. The success of Medium no doubt is partially behind this large showing. Of course the true test is to see which of these shows is still on in December.
So there you have it, crime shows, maxi-series and supernatural (and the ever gag-tastic reality shows) but no Billie Graham Reunion Tour. Looks like it could be a good fall season. 🙂

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3 – Fall lineup grid
4 – Fall season new shows

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